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KMID : 1124020210370020081
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Korean Social Security Studies
2021 Volume.37 No. 2 p.81 ~ p.103
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The Relationship between Government’s Containment Measures on COVID-19 and Confirmed Cases: Country-level Panel Analysis
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Park Woo-Sung
Min In-Sik
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Abstract
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The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the relationship between the quarantine measures on COVID-19 and new confirmed cases using country-level panel data. The Stringency Index published on Oxford University’s Coronavirus Government Response Tracker is a proxy of the containment measures in each country. The Stringency Index’s weekly frequency data and the number of new confirmed cases for 175 countries are employed in our empirical analysis. We propose a linear panel regression controlling country-specific heterogeneity. The functional form between the two variables of interest is set as a quadratic function relationship. The empirical results are summarized as follows: First, the Stringency Index has a significant effect on reducing new confirmed cases after two weeks. Second, the reduction effect of confirmed cases only occurs above a certain level of the Stringency Index. Third, the school closure index as one of the sub-indicators consisting of the Stringency Index has a significant causal effect on the decrease in confirmed cases. Based on the country-level panel data regression, we find that, on average, the enforcement of containment measures significantly leads to the reduction of confirmed cases in any country. These results are expected to give policy implication to Korea’s containment measures on COVID-19 and their desired effects.
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KEYWORD
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COVID-19, Panel Data, Stringency Index, Confirmed Cases
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